2024 RB Rookie Super Model: Tier 3 Rookie Running Backs (2024)

With the NFL Draft quickly approaching, we are releasing our updated Fantasy Life Rookie Super Model to help answer that question! We have already releasedWRs andTEs and are now moving on to the RB position.

Our goal is to identify the top rookie prospects based on data points that correlate most with future NFL production. I have been working on NFL rookie models for the last three years, and over that time, I have studied and measured hundreds of predraft variables against future NFL production.

This is a great time to clarify that I am not a mathematician or a coder. Yes, I have a background in data and analytics, but I am self-taught. I didn’t take a course or go to a university to study these topics. I simply love data, understanding why things work the way they do, and football.

OK, back to the point I was about to make before my disclaimer.

The truth is that most variables don’t carry a strong signal, or they overlap too much with an existing variable to make it into a model. Even once you define a list of relatively strong inputs, it is hard to accurately predict which college athletes will be the best NFL players.

Football is a sport with countless dependencies played by notoriously unpredictable creatures known as human beings. When you add in plain old variance, you can see how this activity can become challenging.

But that is what makes it so interesting, and it fuels me to test new ideas every offseason. At the RB position, our model has performed very well.

Correlations to future fantasy performance:

• Raw NFL Draft Pick: 0.58
• NFL Draft Capital Value: 0.68
• Super Model without Draft Capital: 0.68
• Super Model with Draft Capital: 0.72

So, let’s examine the inputs used for the 2024 RB Super Model and then see how the 2024 NFL Draft prospects fared. You can find the other RB tiers here:

• 2024 RB Rookie Super Model: Tier 1 (Thursday, April 18)
• 2024 RB Rookie Super Model: Tier 2
  • Trey Benson
  • Jaylen Wright
  • Blake Corum
  • Braelon Allen
• 2024 RB Rookie Super Model: Tier 3
  • Will Shipley
  • Audric Estime
  • Isaac Guerendo
  • MarShawn Lloyd
  • Bucky Irving
• • Ray Davis
  • Jase McClellan
  • Isaiah Davis
  • Dylan Laube

RB Super Model Overview

The inputs below are in order of their correlation to fantasy production in an RB’s first two years in the NFL.

• Projected draft capital (NFL Mock Draft Database)
• Collegiate program quality
• Adjusted career yards per team attempt (rushing and receiving)
• Career composite PFF grades (rushing and receiving)
• NFL.com prospect grades
• Speed Score
• Career TDs per game
• Age

Adjusted yards per team pass attempt (YPTA) normalizes RB production across different team environments. It doubles the value of receiving yards.

Formula: (rushing yards + receiving yards*2) / (team rushing attempts + passing attempts)

Super Model Note: The Super Model doesn’t count games missed against a player’s per-attempt stats like YPTA; it uses team attempts only from the games played as the denominator.

If you want all the details and reasoning behind the inputs and methodology, .

Tier 3 – Committee Traits With Lower Expected Draft Capital But Still Offers RB2 to RB3 Upside

Will Shipley | Clemson

• RB Super Model: 28th percentile
• Age: 22.1
• Height: 5-foot-11
• Weight: 205

Prospect Summary

Shipley’s pedigree and traits scream RB1 upside, but his production profile leaves you scratching your head. He is the most versatile back in the class and offers massive potential as a pass catcher if he further develops with NFL coaching. There are no guarantees that progress ever takes place, but it is the kind of bet that pays off big when you are right.

Pedigree and Athleticism

• Program Quality Index: 43rd percentile
• NFL Mock Drafts: Round 4
• 247 Recruit Player Rating: 5 of 5 stars (32 overall, RB2)
• Speed Score Index: 66th percentile

Shipley had offers from four of the nation's top five RB pedigree programs: Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State and Penn State. His .984 composite score ranked No. 2 in the 2021 class behindTreVeyon Henderson, per 247 Sports. Ultimately, Shipley decided on Clemson, which has producedTravis Etienne Jr. (Round 1) andWayne Gallman (Round 4) in recent years.

Early mock drafts had Shipley near pick 100, then he drifted toward Pick 150 in March before gradually settling in around pick 120. He didn’t run at the NFL Combine but put on a show at the Clemson Pro Day, registering a 4.39 in the 40-yard dash.

Production and Film

• Adjusted Career YPTA Index: 49th percentile
• Career Total TDs Per Game Index: 49th percentile
• Career Composite PFF Grade Index: 54th percentile
• NFL.com Prospect Grade Index: 45th percentile

Shipley earned immediate playing time as a 19-year-old freshman, handling 43% of the designed rushing attempts and posting a 34% route participation. He was on his way to a dominating collegiate career, with a 1.51 YPTA that season.

Ultimately, his workload didn’t expand much. Shipley kept a similar rushing workload but garnered a slightly larger role in the passing game, with 48% and 45% route participation the following two seasons, resulting in 1.65 and 1.44 YPTAs, respectively.

Sep 30, 2023; Syracuse, New York, USA; Clemson Tigers running back Will Shipley (1) carries the ball as Clemson Tigers linebacker Barrett Carter (0) tries to make a tackle in the fourth quarter at the JMA Wireless Dome. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

His career PFF Run Grade came in at the 52nd percentile. Shipley didn’t demonstrate high-end make-you-miss ability, power or home-run hitting potential.

• Missed tackles forced per attempt: 0.21 (37th percentile)
• Yards after contact: 3.14 (33rd percentile)
• Explosive rush rate: 16% (56th percentile)

Maybe my expectations were too high, but I hoped for more from Shipley’s receiving profile. His 9% career target share is the second-highest for a Power 5 back in the class but falls in the 48th percentile since 2017. Shipley’s career PFF Receiving Grade clocked in at the 54th percentile, so he appeared more average than good even when he got his opportunities.

Shipley’s 6.16 prospect grade makes him a “good backup with the potential to develop into a starter” in Zierleins’ process. Zierlein and Waldman praised Shipley’s acceleration and elusiveness but were less confident in his contact balance.

Waldman graded Shipley’s vision as star-caliber and route-running ability as starter-caliber, noting, “Shipley could be the case of a heralded high school player who has a better pro career than college career.”

Will Shipley Fantasy Outlook: Hit Rates

• Underdog ADP: RB62, Round 18
• Rookie Dynasty ADP: RB10, Pick 33

The Super Model sees Shipley as underdrafted in best-ball and rookie formats alike. If you are looking for a proper home-run profile late in drafts, Shipley is that prospect at RB. Yeah, his prospect profile is flawed, but his production was good enough, especially considering how he could develop over his first two years in the NFL.

We want pass-catching RBs with big-play upside, and no other back in the class offers the same blend of underlying traits as Shipley in those departments.

Audric Estime | Notre Dame

• RB Super Model: 27th percentile
• Age: 21.0
• Height: 5-foot-11
• Weight: 221
• Audric Estime Scouting Report via Chris Allen

Prospect Summary

Estime offers a similar age, weight and production profile to Braelon Allen (Tier 2), but his poor Speed Score hurts him in the Super Model. Still, Estime offers the same early-down profile with a slightly better receiving profile.

Pedigree and Athleticism

• Program Quality Index: 37th percentile
• NFL Mock Drafts: Round 4
• 247 Recruit Player Rating: 4 of 5 stars (231 overall, RB13)
• Speed Score Index: 18th percentile

Notre Dame backs haven’t garnered much NFL Draft capital in recent years.Kyren Williams, a Round 5 pick, looks like a smash now, but the model focuses on draft capital, not NFL production. The RB history gets more weight in the model, but recent Round 2 offensive skill position selections likeMichael Mayer,Chase ClaypoolandCole Kmethelp.

Estime climbed as high as the low 60s in mock drafts before his 4.71-forty sent expectations spiraling downward. His 89.8 Speed Score is the fourth-worst in the Super Model database.

Production and Film

• Adjusted Career YPTA Index: 47th percentile
• Career Total TDs Per Game Index: 54th percentile
• Career Composite PFF Grade Index: 75th percentile
• NFL.com Prospect Grade Index: 38th percentile

Estime rarely played as a freshman behind Williams but expanded his rushing workload to 33% and 56% of the designed attempts in Year 2 and Year 3. No Power 5 back in the class boasted a higher career PFF Run Grade than Estime’s 90.6.

Although he never carved out a massive role in the passing attack, with a career-high 33% route participation and 6% target share, he was good enough as a receiver (60th percentile) to still secure the second-best Career Composite PFF Grade Index in the class at the 75th percentile. That mark was behindJonathon Brooks but ahead ofBucky Irving.

Estime is one of only two Power 5 backs (Jonathon Brooks) to reach a 2.20 YPTA or higher by his age-20 season. His adjusted career YPTA still wasn’t elite (1.49), but it was in line with many of the other top prospects in this class.

Sep 2, 2023; South Bend, Indiana, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish running back Audric Estime (7) scores in the second quarter against the Tennessee State Tigers at Notre Dame Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports

The two big knocks on Estime in the model were his Speed Score and prospect grade. LanceZierlein graded him (5.99) as an “average backup or special-teamer.” So, while the PFF grading system liked Estime, this point contrasts.

Still, even with Zierlein’s grade, if Estime had just declined to run the 40-yard dash, he would be in Tier 2 thanks to a replacement time. While Speed Score is only one component in the model, finding many success stories in his range is difficult.

But, if you provide a little latitude and include players in the 40th percentile or lower,David Montgomery (4.63 forty) andRhamondre Stevenson (4.64 forty) sneak into the comp group as hits. Both players had similar adjusted career YPTAs and career composite PFF grades.

Audric Estime Fantasy Outlook: Hit Rates

• Underdog ADP: RB58, Round 16
• Rookie Dynasty ADP: RB8, Pick 29

Estime was a borderline Tier 2 prospect, but his film and Speed Score red flags pushed him to the top of Tier 3. Ultimately, his hit rates are the same as the Tier 2 options, but there isn’t a need to force him higher, given how low the market is on Estime versus those backs.

Isaac Guerendo | Louisville

• RB Super Model: 26th percentile
• Age: 24.2
• Height: 6-foot
• Weight: 221

Prospect Summary

If there is such a thing as a raw 24-year-old prospect, Guerendo is it. Depth chart challenges and injuries hampered the first four seasons of his college career, but his elite size-speed combination paired with passable film grades give him a puncher’s chance to make noise in the NFL.

Pedigree and Athleticism

• Program Quality Index: 56th percentile
• NFL Mock Drafts: Round 5
• 247 Recruit Player Rating: 3 of 5 stars (872 overall, WR133)
• Speed Score Index: 100th percentile

Guerendo is a sixth-year senior, which would make him the oldest RB in most classes. However, COVID-19, the transfer portal and injuries combined to form the perfect co*cktail, leading to five RBs aged 24 or older.

He played his first five seasons at Wisconsin before transferring to Louisville. However, “played” isn’t the best description of Guerendo’s time with the Badgers. He only suited up for 15 games in his first four seasons and was a reserve in all of them (Jonathan Taylor dominated 2018 and 2019). Guerendo suffered season-ending injuries three times — twice with hamstring injuries and once with a Lisfranc injury.

Guerendo was initially recruited as a WR but switched to RB at Wisconsin. As a three-star recruit, he had five offers, only one from a Power 5 school — Wisconsin.

After clocking a 4.33 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine, Guerendo’s draft expectations soared. His 125.7 Speed Score ranks No. 1 in the Super Model database. Originally considered an undrafted free agent prospect, the six-year collegiate back now looks like a Round 5 pick based on consensus mock drafts.

Production and Film

• Adjusted Career YPTA Index: 30th percentile
• Career Total TDs Per Game Index: 28th percentile
• Career Composite PFF Grade Index: 70th percentile
• NFL.com Prospect Grade Index: 45th percentile

Guerendo grades out poorly in the production department, but given the stacked Wisconsin backfield and his injuries, it is hard to lay all the blame at his feet. However, even with the injuries, seeing more from Guerendo in his limited sample would have been nice. His career-high designed attempt share and route participation marks were 29% in his final season.

Super Model Note: The Super Model doesn’t count games missed against a player’s per-attempt stats like YPTA; it uses team attempts only from the games played as the denominator.

The good news for Guerendo is that he registered a 70th-percentile Career Composite PFF Grade Index thanks to positive grades as a runner (63rd percentile) and receiver (70th percentile). When you pair Guerendo’s grades with his Speed Score, you can make a case that he could be a late bloomer.

Nov 4, 2023; Louisville, Kentucky, USA; Louisville Cardinals running back Isaac Guerendo (23) runs the ball against Virginia Tech Hokies cornerback Braylon Johnson (8) to score a touchdown during the second half at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium. Louisville defeated Virginia Tech 34-3. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Rhodes-USA TODAY Sports

Zierlein graded Guerendo as a “good backup with the potential to develop into a starter” and labeled him an ascending prospect. Zierlein sees Guerendo as a potential three-down back thanks to solid pass protection and pass-catching skills. Still, Waldman was less confident, with a committee-caliber grade as a pass catcher and reserve-caliber marks as a route runner and blocker.

Guerendo offers check-down-target viability based on his grades across three sources, but it is probably best to assume he isn’t three-down ready.

Isaac Guerendo Fantasy Outlook: Hit Rates

• Underdog ADP: Undrafted
• Rookie Dynasty ADP: Undrafted

Drafters don’t see eye-to-eye with the Super Model on this one, leaving Guerendo. Maybe the ghost of Al Davis is haunting our model, whispering, “Speed kills. You can’t teach speed. Everything else in the game can be taught, but speed is a gift from God.”

MarShawn Lloyd | USC

• RB Super Model: 24th percentile
• Age: 23.7
• Height: 5-foot-9
• Weight: 220
• MarShawn Lloyd Scouting Report via Jonathan Fuller

Prospect Summary

Lloyd is a boom-bust prospect. His pedigree, measurables and eye-catching play style make us want to believe in his upside. However, his production profile and PFF grades tell us those wow moments don’t always add up in the right way.

Pedigree and Athleticism

• Program Quality Index: 52nd percentile
• NFL Mock Drafts: Round 4
• 247 Recruit Player Rating: 4 of 5 stars (43 overall, RB5)
• Speed Score Index: 67th percentile

Lloyd was one of the most highly lauded RB prospects of the 2020 class, with offers from programs like Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, Penn State and Clemson. Lloyd committed to South Carolina, where he stayed for three years before transferring to USC.

Lloyd’s mock draft status has hovered around pick 100 since February. He had a strong showing at the NFL Combine, clocking a 4.46 40-yard dash at 220 pounds. His 111.2 Speed Score is the fourth-best in the 2024 NFL Draft class.

Production and Film

• Adjusted Career YPTA Index: 39th percentile
• Career Total TDs Per Game Index: 33rd percentile
• Career Composite PFF Grade Index: 35th percentile
• NFL.com Prospect Grade Index: 46th percentile

Lloyd redshirted and missed his freshman season due to an ACL injury. He played sparingly as a redshirt sophom*ore, handling only 18% of the Gameco*cks' designed rushing attempts and a 14% route participation. He increased his role the following season but opted to transfer to USC, where he handled 45% of the designed attempts and posted a 42% route participation.

One might think Lloyd’s adjusted career YPTA (1.28) doesn’t accurately portray his production. But remember, the Super Model doesn’t count games missed against the player; it only divides their yards by team attempts in games played. Also, Lloyd never posted an elite YPTA mark — his career-high (1.90) ranks in the 46th percentile.

Oct 7, 2023; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans running back MarShawn Lloyd (0) runs the ball against Arizona Wildcats safety Dalton Johnson (43) during the second half at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Lloyd is a fun runner to watch thanks to a 0.33 missed tackles forced rate (78th percentile) and an 18% explosive rush rate (68th percentile). However, his career PFF Run Grade — which boosts a player's score when they add value to the play — came in at the 49th percentile.

Our two film experts noted concerns that align with this grade. Zierlein noted, “[Lloyd] will miss opportunities for splashy runs due to average vision,” and Waldman observed he lacked consistency in knowing “when to bounce runs and when to stay the course behind the play design” in hisRookie Scouting Portfolio.

Lloyd was an average-to-below-average target earner in college and graded poorly with a 29th percentile PFF Receiving grade. That isn’t an ideal combination and contributes to Lloyd’s poor scores in adjusted career YPTA and his career composite PFF grade.

MarShawn Lloyd Fantasy Outlook: Hit Rates

• Underdog ADP: RB45, Round 13
• Rookie Dynasty ADP: RB6, Pick 18

The Super Model is lower on Lloyd than the pre-draft best ball and rookie draft markets, but his hit rates don’t support the hype. That doesn’t mean Lloyd is a terrible prospect; the model just views him as overvalued versus the pricing on other backs in this tier.

It is worth noting Lloyd graded out a tier lower in the “Without Draft Capital” version of the Super Model below. His closest comps wereDarrynton Evans andRyquell Armstead.

Bucky Irving | Oregon

• RB Super Model: 24th percentile
• Age: 22.1
• Height: 5-foot-9
• Weight: 192

Prospect Summary

Irving was a solid dual-threat producer in college but was more potent as a runner than a receiver. With his limited size and speed, those things will likely need to flip to give him a chance to survive in the NFL. Irving’s best fit is likely as a change-of-pace back or two-minute offense back, but he has the baseline skills to grow into an every-down player if you ignore his measurables.

Pedigree and Athleticism

• Program Quality Index: 34th percentile
• NFL Mock Drafts: Round 4
• 247 Recruit Player Rating: 4 of 5 stars (340 overall, RB23)
• Speed Score Index: 18th percentile

Irving didn’t get offers from the top RB pedigree schools but had double-digit Power 5 offers, including Michigan. He committed to Minnesota, where he played one season before transferring to Oregon.

At the NFL Combine, he ran a 4.55 in the 40-yard dash. While the time in itself isn’t horrible, at only 192 pounds it translates to a Speed Score of 89.6 — the third-worst in the database. Irving’s mock draft rank peaked at 86 in January and hit its low at 139 in March. He now sits at 114 in Round 4.

Production and Film

• Adjusted Career YPTA Index: 56th percentile
• Career Total TDs Per Game Index: 33rd percentile
• Career Composite PFF Grade Index: 75th percentile
• NFL.com Prospect Grade Index: 33rd percentile

Irving immediately contributed as a freshman, garnering 28% of the Golden Gophers' designed rushing attempts. The following year, he transferred to Oregon, where in his final two seasons, he accounted for 33% and 45% of totes and posted route participations of 40% and 60%.

Irving upped his YPTA each year (1.21, 1.77 and 2.09), and while he never posted an elite season, his 56th percentile career YPTA of 1.74 ranks 52nd in the database of 215 prospects. He never became a high-end TD producer but was a high-quality runner with the fifth-best career PFF Run Grade (81st percentile) in the class and ranked sixth in receiving grade (65th percentile).

Jan 1, 2024; Glendale, AZ, USA; Oregon Ducks running back Bucky Irving (0) against the Liberty Flames during the 2024 Fiesta Bowl at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

While Irving might not be fast, he was one of the more elusive RBs in the database with a 0.36 missed forced tackles rate, which fell in the 89th percentile. When you add it all up, you get a 75th percentile career composite PFF grade — the second-best mark for a Power 5 back in the class behindJonathon Brooks.

Zierlein had plenty of positive things to say about Irving but ultimately gave him a backup-level grade (5.87). Projecting how players will translate to the next level often depends on whether evaluators believe a player has the size, strength and speed to win against better competition at the next level. Zierlein listed the lack of ideal size and explosiveness as contributing factors to Irving’s valuation.

Since 2017, here are the closest comps to Irving based on weight, Speed Score, production and NFL.com grade:

• Kyren Williams
• Tyler Badie
• Jaret Patterson

I don’t think hanging our hat on the Williams comp is a great idea, but he reminds us that outliers occur. Of course, Williams also landed with an offensive mind willing to give him a chance as a full-time player.

Bucky Irving Fantasy Outlook: Hit Rates

• Underdog ADP: RB56, Round 13
• Rookie Dynasty ADP: RB7, Pick 28

The model prefers Shipley over Irving as the dual-threat upside option to target from this time, but the masses see it differently in best ball and rookie drafts. It is worth noting both Zierlien and Waldman have Shipley ahead of Irving in their film grading process.

Of course, the beauty of using tiers is you can take your personal preference — they are close. However, even more importantly, you can grab Irving first and circle back for Shipley in rookie drafts if you need RBs and want to add two dual-threat options.

RB Super Model Inputs & Methodology Overview

Because the model includes advanced data that wasn’t widely available before the 2017 class, our sample focuses on prospects with at least two years of play since then. So, our correlations to future performance currently derive from RB data from 2017 to 2022.

Super Model Note: the only RBs included from the 2017 class left for the NFL after three years because we don’t have data for the 2013 season to cover four-year starters from the class.

For all production stats, the data comes from the game log level rather than the season.

Draft Capital Value

The model uses Chase Stuart’sDraft Value Chart for draft capital, essentially abetter version of what many know as the Jimmy Johnson trade chart. The value of a draft pick isn’t linear, and this methodology helps us capture that. The dropoff in value is steeper in the first round and becomes much flatter around the end of the second round. Draft capital value is the most weighted input in the Super Model.

Super Model Note: Because draft capital isn’t linear, the most significant deterioration occurs in the first two rounds. As a byproduct of that, the scores in the model drop off quickly and then begin to flatten toward the end of Round 2.That means the 45th percentile isn’t a bad score – it ranks 20th out of 215 prospects in the database. In fact, 177 out of 215 prospects are below the 35th percentile.

Program Quality Index

Program quality is a pedigree metric that uses draft capital value to determine the total value each collegiate program has contributed to the NFL Draft since 2015. The model uses a composite score derived from two inputs.

• Program draft capital at the RB position
• Program draft capital at the RB, WR and TE positions

Those scores are then indexed to form the Program Quality Index.

Prospects who come from more robust programs score better. Program quality has been a factor in the model before, but this is a better way of quantifying it. Additionally, this metric helps offset lower production numbers from prospects with more competition.

The weighting for pedigree is intentionally lower than the correlation to future production suggests because program quality creates a double-counting effect for draft capital. While we want prospects from schools that churn out high draft picks, that particular player’s draft capital is included in program quality when we look back at the model. This is also why we use a program quality score focused on RB, WR and TE in the RB model.

I want to shout out toBilly Elder, who spawned this idea.

Adjusted Career Yards Per Team Attempt Index

Adjusted career YPTA is a production metric that allows us to normalize yards based on the team environment, which is essential because team volume varies from one situation to the next. A prospect averaging 75 yards per game in a low-volume offense might be better than another averaging 100 yards on a high-volume squad per-team-attempt basis.

Receiving yards are worth twice as much as rushing yards in this equation. This gives us a better approximation of value versus half and full-PPR formats.

Equation: (rushing yards + receiving yards*2) / (team rushing attempts + passing attempts)

Career Composite PFF Grade Index

This qualitative metric is based on a player’s career PFF Rushing Grade and PFF Receiving Grade. If you wonder how PFF Grades work, I recommend readingSteve Palazzolo’s breakdown. But below are two excerpts that can get you by if you just want the basics.

“Credit is given for each move the running back makes to add value to the play, whether forcing a missed tackle, using speed to gain the edge or creating yards through contact.”

“Our goal is to isolate the running back’s contribution to that production, and the runners with the highest grades are those who produce above expectation and outside what the run blocking or scheme allows.”

PFF Grades account for context we otherwise can’t capture at such a massive scale. Because of this, it isn’t surprising that grades correlate more strongly to future production than individual statistics, such as missed tackles forced, yards after contact, and explosive plays. Plus, it allows us to concisely present that information in one data point.

Super Model Note: We are calculating the career grades based on season grades weighted by rushing attempts and passing targets.

NFL.com Prospect Grade Index

This is another qualitative metric based on Lance Zierlien’s prospect grades on NFL.com. His prospect scores have a 0.59 correlation to Year 1 and Year 2 RB fantasy production since 2017, which was strong enough to add a film element to the Super Model.

The grades are indexed on a scale of 0 to 1.

Speed Score

I tested all NFL Combine and pro day data, including RAS (relative athletic scores) for all positions. While most athletic tests show some signal, they aren’t strong enough to make it into the model. However, for RB, Speed Score garnered a 0.31 correlation to future production and offered relatively low overlap with the other data points in the model.

Speed Score combines a player’s weight with 40-yard dash time (weight*200)/(40-time^4), offering a significantly stronger signal over 40 times alone. Bill Barnwell of ESPN created Speed Score.

Career Total TDs Per Game

This is another production metric. The data showed that using a normalized metric like YPTA was superior for receiving yards, but that wasn’t true for TDs. Instead, per-game data demonstrated a stronger correlation than share, per-team attempt, and other options.

There is a correlation between yards and TDs, so once again, there is some overlap in signal between our metrics—however, not all RBs who are strong in YPTA score a lot of TDs.

Age Index

A player’s age derives from how old they will be at the beginning of the upcoming NFL season. Historically, younger players and early-declares carry a stronger signal than older prospects.